062
FXUS65 KSLC 291825
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1225 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- ENHANCED EASTERLY CANYON WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND, AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE INTERIOR
WEST. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING TO NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, OUTSIDE OF A BURST OF GRAUPEL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, EXPECT
SBCAPE VALUES TO NUDGE UP HIGHER, TO AROUND 100-250 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS OR SO. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW CONVECTION TO ELECTRIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN, THIS ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUT A FEW DRY MICROBURSTS WITH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH OR
SO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILES.
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ENHANCED CANYONS WINDS ARE
LIKELY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THERE IS A LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH (WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA), SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN EVEN MORE PALTRY INSTABILITY LEVELS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, NORMALLY COLD VALLEYS SUCH AS THE SANPETE AND SEVIER
VALLEY, THE CACHE VALLEY, SOUTHWEST UTAH AND EASTERN MILLARD AND
EASTERN JUAB COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28-32F THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A ~50% CHANCE OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE SANPETE AND
SEVIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY. FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. WILL HOLD OFF ON
THAT PORTION OF THE HEADLINES FOR NOW TO SEE IF TEMPERATURES
MODERATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A MEAN TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION
KSLC..VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND SWITCHES.
THERE IS ROUGHLY 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER OVER
THE TERRAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH <15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
UTZ107-116-118-119-122.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ107-
116-118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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