765
FXUS65 KSLC 301917
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
117 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE
REGION, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-15, THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- ENHANCED EASTERLY CANYON WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A WARM SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND IMPACT
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
- AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DECIDEDLY SPRING-LIKE DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
BEEHIVE STATE. A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE WEST FLANK OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
THURSDAY'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH THURSDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS A ROBUST 140KT+ JET MAX,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF BOTH THE POLAR AND SUB-TROPICAL
JET WILL SHIFT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINATION OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
THE COUPLED JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING ENHANCED LIFT TO SOUTHERN
UTAH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAEFS GUIDANCE VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATES THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A 90TH+ PERCENTILE IVT/PW
SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. WHILE SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE
SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED LARGELY TO THE MID-LEVELS, EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AFTER
18Z SUNDAY AND TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH
TIME...REACHING NORTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT WHILE FORCING WILL BE EXTENSIVE,
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE/ORGANIZED CONVECTION POTENTIAL, BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS, REMNANT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY (ABOUT 40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION).
AS FAR AS EASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, WITH A
10% CHANCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH FOR FARMINGTON AND WEBER
CANYONS. ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS MAY REACH AS FAR AS SOUTH AS
MILLCREEK CANYON DURING THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE THREAT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 10% AND LOCALIZED, NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE
NEEDED.
FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY, THE SANPETE AND
SEVIER VALLEYS, EASTERN MILLARD AND EASTERN JUAB COUNTIES, THE
CACHE VALLEY AND THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND ONE LAST ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CACHE AND WESTERN UINTA BASIN).
AVIATION
KSLC..VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CHANGES.
CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 04Z. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS NEAR THE
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. ANY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25KTS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF I-15. THERE IS LESS THAN A 20%
CHANCE OF SUCH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KLGU AND KEVW. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN, EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS WHICH
COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 25KT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
UTZ107-114-116-118-119-122.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ116-
118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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