512
FXUS65 KSLC 011833
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1233 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.
- THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR ANY HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK TO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SHIFT INTO UTAH FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER, AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TRENDS IN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLED JET,
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERTED-V TYPE SIGNATURES (AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS) IN THE AREA OF
BEST FORCING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-70. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH WITH TIME, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ANY OF THESE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, EXPECT
AROUND A 5% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR
SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AND NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UNLIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FORCING IS BROAD AND WEAK...AND WHILE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, THE THREAT OF SIGNFICIANT
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IS LESS.
BY WEDNESDAY, ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
AND TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO SUMMER THAN LATE SPRING.
WHILE GUIDANCE THE NEXT WEEK SHOWS A RANGE FROM STRONG RIDGING TO
WANDERING CUT-OFF LOWS...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER
CONDITIONS. THERE IS AROUND 15% CHANCE THAT KSLC COULD SEE THE
FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MAY 10 OR MONDAY
MAY 11. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS FAR IN THE FUTURE, BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR MOVING FORWARD.
AS FAR AS HEADLINES GO, FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS,
SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND EASTERN JUAB AND EASTERN MILLARD COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST FREEZE WARNINGS FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
KSLC..VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12+
KTS AFTER ROUGHLY 22Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AFTER ~04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THAT MAY
CREATE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
UTZ116-118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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