117
FXUS65 KSLC 020419
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.
- THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A CHANCE FOR MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR
ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK TO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IN ITS PLACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, WITH FREEZE WARNINGS
OUT FOR THE SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR BETWEEN NEPHI AND CEDAR CITY.
AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW STARTS TO SLOWLY PIVOT INTO CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. INITIAL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR EVENING SUNDAY, PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOESN'T
LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, ONLY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 100-200
J/KG, THAT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE GUSTS IN THE
35-45 MPH RANGE GIVEN A PRETTY SOLID INVERTED-V IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT HREF MAX SHOWS WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON (EVENING IS OUTSIDE OF ITS WINDOW), THOUGH GUSTS MAY
BE HIGHER MOVING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.
AS THIS CLOSED LOW SHIFTS CLOSER SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS, GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER DOESN'T INHIBIT
INSTABILITY TOO MUCH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE A
THREAT, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THAT THREAT.
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE STATEWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THAT CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HERE, AS MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. AROUND HALF OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARDS,
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.
AVIATION
KSLC..THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BY 06Z. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE
AREA, WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ116-118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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