922
FXUS65 KSLC 031846
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1246 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY, BUT BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING FROM
INCREASED MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COURTESY OF A CUTOFF LOW
NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW INVERTED-V
PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
800-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH MORE
ISOLATED POCKETS APPROACHING 1200 J/KG ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PRIME FOR MICROBURSTS
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, THOUGH
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND TAPER IN INTENSITY LATE
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DWINDLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN OVERHEAD. THE CUTOFF
LOW BECOMES ELONGATED AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING THE
WASATCH FRONT. MICROBURSTS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 50
MPH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. INCREASED
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL MINIMIZE THE WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO USHER INTO THE
REGION COURTESY OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NEAR-SEASONAL NORMALS ON TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY,
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOWING A DIURNALLY NORMAL PATTERN.
SOUTHERLIES INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND SOME LOWERING OF CLOUDS
TO AROUND 12 KFT OCCURS. A SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH WILL THEN RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SPORADIC OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS/CIGS FOR
ANYTHING OVER THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERIODICALLY REDUCED VIS/CIGS. WHILE SHOWER
CHANCES DECREASE IN THE SOUTH MOVING INTO MONDAY, THIS ACTIVITY THEN
BRINGS SIMILAR IMPACTS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY MORNING ON
THROUGH THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS GENERALLY FOLLOW A NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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