992
FXUS65 KSLC 171800
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1200 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- A QUITE UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES 10-20F BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY ALONG WITH
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, SIGNIFICANT FOR THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT MANY UTAH VALLEYS OUTSIDE OF THE
WASATCH FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS THAT WILL SEE
THE GREATEST IMPACTS INCLUDE WEST CENTRAL UTAH, SOUTHWEST UTAH,
AND THE SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY DRY, WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO RUN UP TO
10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A COLD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NEAR A
KMLF-KRKS LINE. PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS
THE MAIN TROUGH NOSES INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION,
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A FRONTAL BAND BECOMING MORE EVIDENT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING FGEN FORCING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR HAVING
MOVED IN, NORTHERN UTAH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN UP TO 15F BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH.
THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL BE THE TIME OF MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 5,000 TO 6,000 FOOT RANGE AT THIS TIME, WITH ALL OF UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A FOOT, AS GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION GOING
LONGER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED IMPACTS,
HAVE STUCK WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AN
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AS ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE OVERALL IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT THAN
PREVIOUSLY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MONDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS UP TO 20F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AREAWIDE, MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY MARCH. MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER COOLING A BIT TONIGHT, WITH TUESDAY MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS, INCLUDING WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH AND THE SANPETE
AND SEVIER VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH EXITS, A WEAK TRAILING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
SMALL WITH IT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE ON THURSDAY, CURBING THE WARMING TREND
SLIGHTLY. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING VALUES UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MARKING QUITE THE SEVEN DAY
TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER.
AVIATION...KSLC
VICINITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE IN WAVES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A 30% CHANCE
OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 09-12Z.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH GUSTY PERIODS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT EVW, WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BRING IFR
VISIBILITY AND CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE INCREASING OVER UTAH
TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. OVER FAR SOUTHERN UTAH, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A COLD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL TREND
DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ112.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY
FOR UTZ114>116-118-119-122.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-116-118-119-122.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
WYZ021.
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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