787
FXUS65 KSLC 201843
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1243 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, GRADUALLY CLEARING THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SHIFTING INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
INTO COLORADO. GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WIND STRONG
WIND GUSTS OR SOME GRAUPEL ON THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BOULDER MOUNTAIN AND ON THE HIGH
UINTAS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL REMAIN
LARGELY DRY.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT BETWEEN TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS: ONE IN WHICH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
PACIFIC COAST OVER A NUMBER OF DAYS AND ONE WHERE THE TROUGH
REMAINS PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING ACROSS
THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, CURRENT MEMBERS SUPPORT A LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE OF 0.25" OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN, THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LOW.
AVIATION...KSLC
LARGELY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH LOWERING DECKS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14-15Z WITH MODEST GUSTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
AFTER 15Z A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION (PRIMARILY FOCUSED AFTER 12Z). MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
(GUSTS 20-30MPH). FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
UNDER LARGELY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BRING
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MAINLY THE
GRAND STAIRCASE AND COLOR COUNTRY MOUNTAINS AREAS.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING, A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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