301
FXUS65 KSLC 211931
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
131 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BREAK,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) TO
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED WINDS ARE LIKELY (>50% CHANCE OF 45+MPH) ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH ON TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF MAINLY VIRGA AND SPRINKLES HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING FROM EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHILE GRAZING
NORTHERN UTAH. INCREASING LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 200-300 J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THUS
THE BEST AXIS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM AROUND LOGAN EASTWARD TO EVANSTON AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DECREASE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS TOWARD SLC
EASTWARD TO DUCHESNE, AND THUS EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WITH
BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS
HEIGHT BUILD ALOFT FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS WARMING
AND SUBSIDENCE.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE AGAIN. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A DEEP
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH
AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE AND WILL START INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE SHORTWAVE TIMING TROUGH EASTERN UTAH
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY MORNING, AND THUS ILL-TIMED FOR PEAK HEATING.
THUS CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT WOULD BE MORE MINIMAL, HOWEVER GIVEN
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT, IF THAT TIMING WERE TO CHANGE, THERE WOULD BE
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY COMBINED WITH STRONGER WIND
GUSTS (>50% CHANCE OF GUSTS 45+MPH) TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES IN CLOSER TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN UTAH.
THERE REMAINS DECENT SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF THAT CUTOFF LOW AND
EXACTLY HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ONWARD NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
A BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE GSL
TOWARD THE AIRPORT WHICH WILL SETTLE IN NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
2000 WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS ALL NORTHERN UT SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KEVW MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN UTAH TODAY, MAINLY FROM AROUND
LOGAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL INTO TOMORROW.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH, DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH
VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR PRICE, WILL DROP INTO
THE 10-15% RANGE FOR AREAS FROM GREEN RIVER TO HANKSVILLE TO THE
GRAND STAIRCASE. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH IN THIS AREA,
MAKING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE, MAINLY IN ZONE 489.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TOMORROW, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THOSE STORM. OTHERWISE, THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ON WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THERE IS
NOW ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND. THERE IS EVEN ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH DURING
THIS PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY. BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN HOW QUICKLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE THE SPREAD THE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UTAH BY WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHURCH
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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