271
FXUS65 KSLC 221905
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
105 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MICROBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEAR ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WIND AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING
TUESDAY IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY, REMAINING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70. WIND GUSTS HAVE
LARGELY STAYED BELOW 35 MPH, THOUGH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW ROGUE GUSTS EXCEEDING 40-45 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 45 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WITH LARGELY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TRANSLATING TO THE MID-80S ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT AND MANY OTHER VALLEYS, AND LOW- TO MID-90S IN ST. GEORGE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWARD ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE
POTENT CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO UTAH, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
CROSS UTAH ON MONDAY NIGHT, NOT OVERLAPPING WITH THE DIURNAL PEAK
IN INSTABILITY. THUS, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN IF THE TIMING WERE TO SHIFT EARLIER OR
LATER (WHICH IS STILL IN THE CARDS). DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AND THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN
INCREASED SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
ALONGSIDE AN ELEVATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY, LIKELY PEAKING
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS (WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN VALLEYS). CURRENTLY, THERE IS AROUND A
50-60% CHANCE OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) ACROSS
WESTERN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN GREATER
CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. LARGE-SCALE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN, PARTICULARLY
WITH TIMING AS THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW COULD STILL SHIFT.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FULLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE KSLC
TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR(BY 20Z), WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BY 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR KCDC WHERE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. FOLLOWING 02Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MAKING WAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS,
WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS BRIEFLY EXCEED 45 MPH AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 10-20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. MINIMUM RH WILL BE AROUND 10-15 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UP TO 20-30 PERCENT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THREAT OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS IN
PARTICULAR GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH...POTENTIALLY LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page