111
FXUS65 KSLC 231807
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1207 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FROM ROUGHLY I-70
TO A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF CEDAR CITY TO NORTH OF BRYCE CANYON
TO NORTH OF BULLFROG AS WELL AS THE RAFT RIVER RANGE AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH ACROSS A PORTION OF WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY, AND
UPWARDS OF A 60% CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BROADER AREA.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WIND AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH INDICATION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DRAPED OVER A PORTION OF NORTHERN AN SOUTHERN UTAH. AS UTAH
REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, THIS
LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TOUCH OF MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE
OBSERVED AND MODELED LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE, THINKING THAT THE
LOW END THREAT FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE (IN
GENERAL) FOR AN AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM CEDAR CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
I-70/I-15 MERGE, AND FROM THE CAPITOL REEF REGION WESTWARD TO THE
NEVADA BORDER. GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS,
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE UNLIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, THE LACK OF SHEAR
AND DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/ SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... JUST YOUR RUN OF THE MILL SHOWERS WITH
A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE OR LESS THE SAME GENERAL SETUP WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED TO AROUND 15-30%
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH, AS WELL AS THE HIGH UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% IN THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY ANOTHER 2-4
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH
AS A RIDGE AXIS LIFTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD, LOOSELY DEFINED RIDGE WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING FURTHER WARMING
OF THE ENVIRONMENT. PEAK TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE
EXPECTED BY MEMORIAL DAY AS A RESULT, WITH HIGHS REACHING 7-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND 0-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHEASTERN UTAH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE
LACKING BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
AFTER MONDAY, MODELS MAINTAIN SOLID AGREEMENT ON AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE PACNW REGION AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY FORWARD. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A PORTION OF UTAH FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH HAVE DECREASED FOR TUESDAY,
SHOWING A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30% CHANCE) OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH OVER WESTERN UTAH. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SUPPORT OF
A MODERATE PROBABILITY (40-60% CHANCE) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
LINGERS TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO WORK
THROUGH WITH THE POSITION OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL INFLUENCE HOW
MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION WE SEE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN AND NORTHWEST UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT THESE SHOWERS PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN AS SURFACE
MOISTURE IS INADEQUATE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ALONGSIDE MINIMUM
HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE.
CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO UTAH, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPWARDS OF 8-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND 1-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE BY AROUND 5
PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE, THEN DRY AGAIN BY
5-10 PERCENT ON MONDAY WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CHANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUESDAY FORWARD, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF
WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EASTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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