547
FXUS65 KSLC 070426
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1026 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES REGARDING GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON.
- THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING EXISTS TOMORROW
ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.
- GIVEN PRECEDING DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
DISCUSSION
TOMORROW, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT, THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST UT. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SERVE TO MITIGATE AFTERNOON
MIXING, KEEPING WINDS MORE MODERATED WITH NORTHERN EXTENT. THIS WILL
BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS NORTHERN UT, THOUGH WEST-CENTRAL UT MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY.
REGARDLESS, HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UT RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT, THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ATTENDANT STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS ID/MT. WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
TRAVERSING CENTRAL UT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE, SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INVERTED-
V SOUNDINGS ARE ABUNDANT GIVEN NOTABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE AREA OF INTEREST WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT, SUGGESTING THAT ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS (GREATER THAN 58MPH). LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT, POTENTIALLY
YIELDING A MORE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL UT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.
WHILE HUMIDITIES MAY REBOUND SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOW TEENS, A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH (GENERALLY 60-90%+). ADDITIONALLY,
THE SIGNAL FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH REMAINS QUITE WIDESPREAD
THIS FORECAST CYCLE, RANGING FROM 40-60% AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
WITH EASTERN EXTENT. LASTLY, THERE IS ALSO SOME SIGNAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL
OR SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL UT WITH TIME, THOUGH EXACT
LOCATION IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTEND PAST WEDNESDAY, THOUGH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THIS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSITIONING
BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 05-06Z. SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 15Z, BECOMING NORTHERLY THEREAFTER, WITH AROUND A 20-25%
CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN FEATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREA, AS
WELL AS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREA, POTENTIALLY GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 25-30KTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AREA, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30KTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOWS IN EXCESS OF
40KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING
AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD GIVEN A SPARK. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH AS WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WHILE WINDS TAPER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY,
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 MPH WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT VERY
EFFICIENT MIXING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN CRITICALLY DRY RH AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 30-40
MPH AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ484-489-492>498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ484-489-492>498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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