849
FXUS65 KSLC 081918
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
118 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAY 3 OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES REGARDING GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON.
- GIVEN PRECEDING DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- ON TUESDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UT. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
ONCE AGAIN, THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW AS WINDS SEE A
NOTABLE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE
LOW-TEENS, A STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT IS ON TRACK TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT. WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH HAVE TAPERED OFF SOMEWHAT AND BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED, PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH REMAIN AROUND
70%+ ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, DRY THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A
THREAT TOMORROW COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS HEIGHT RISES
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT AS THE INITIAL MIDLEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
ON TUESDAY, THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO FAVOR
SOUTHEAST UT WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH RANGE
FROM 40-60%. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN UT AND CENTRAL UT,
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH REMAIN WIDESPREAD AND
RATHER HIGH AROUND 70%+. WIND PROBABILITIES SURROUNDING WESTERN UT
AND ESPECIALLY THE WASHINGTON COUNTY AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS DISPLACED FURTHER EAST, FAVORING
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO, ALL WHILE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, CAM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL WARM LATER WHICH WOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THIS HAS
CREATED A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS.
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A RATHER INTERESTING SEVERE SETUP MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE ID/UT BORDER FAVORING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE SUPERCELLS. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
AMPLE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE PNW. AS THE PARENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND TAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT ACROSS THE PNW, A SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH RESULTING IN ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO AROUND
50KTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE ID/UT BORDER. WITH
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST, BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30-40KTS APPEARS EVIDENT
ACROSS MOST 00Z CAM GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER COLD FOR JUNE RANGING FROM -14C TO -17C. COUPLED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, THESE COLD H5 TEMPERATURES
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES MARKEDLY TO AROUND 7.5-8C/KM. WHILE THESE
LAPSE RATES AREN'T NECESSARILY STEEP COMPARED TO MOST HOT AND DRY
SUMMER DAYS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, THIS IS NOTABLE GIVEN DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S YIELDING A SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION THAN OUR RUN OF THE MILL DRY THUNDERSTORM DAYS. WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS OVERLAP OF PARAMETERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHICH WOULD POSE A SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN UT ON WEDNESDAY, AND AS SUCH,
WESTERNMOST FIRE ZONES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY.
FROM THURSDAY ON, HEIGHT RISES APPEAR LIKELY AS NEARLY ALL GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY WESTERLY FLOW AREAWIDE, SERVING TO
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ROUGHLY 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES HINT AT A PIVOT TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW INSTANCES OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS OUTCOME EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
ROUGHLY 23-00Z BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 11Z, BECOMING LIGHTER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 14-18Z, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS
TO ~8KFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS UNDER INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AIRSPACE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM KSLC
NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND RH IN THE LOW TEENS.
THERE IS A MORE CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN UTAH
AS HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 50 MPH. WINDS TAPER THIS EVENING AREAWIDE, BUT ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 AND LOCALLY TO 45 MPH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH ON
MONDAY, THEN SHIFT TO EASTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ484-489-493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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