114
FXUS65 KSLC 081923
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
123 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY GIVEN PRECEDING DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHERN UT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
YET ANOTHER DAY OF DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN
STORE FOR TODAY, AS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAIN UPSTREAM OF
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD AT THIS POINT, BUT THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WHEREVER FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF LARGELY 25-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
LATE TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT, BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST CORNER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
PROVIDING BETTER INSTABILITY AND SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
STORMS. DESPITE SOME LOW- LEVEL DRY AIR, THE DRY MICROBURST
THREAT MAY BE MORE LIMITED GIVEN LOWER CLOUD BASES. HOWEVER, WITH
SOME SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE,
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE BEST ALONG THE UT-ID
BORDER. SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
BY WEDNESDAY, FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY, AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER, THERE STILL REMAINS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH, PARTICULARLY FURTHER EAST.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL OVERALL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE EARLY THURSDAY WILL
REINFORCE COLDER AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ON THURSDAY, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA, FOLLOWED BY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, SOME MOISTURE COULD
BE DRAWN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND AS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, WITH A
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 0.50-0.85" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
ST. GEORGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
ROUGHLY 23-00Z BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 11Z, BECOMING LIGHTER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 14-18Z, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS
TO ~8KFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS UNDER INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AIRSPACE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM KSLC
NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH
WHERE PROLONGED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MORE MARKED.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO UTAH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL COOL, OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, GUSTY, MILD, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT REMAINS LARGELY STALLED WEDNESDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN UTAH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR TERRAIN MAY
ALSO SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE NEARBY TERRAIN.
FROM THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE MARGINAL,
RESULTING IN MORE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ484-489-493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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