771
FXUS65 KSLC 090433
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1033 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHERN UT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ESTABLISHES BY FRIDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE PACNW REGION WILL PIVOT INTO NORTHERN UTAH,
HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VEIL OF CLOUD COVER
ALREADY DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS INCREASES, WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
WEAK ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST NEVADA (TIED TO
THE INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT). THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH COVERING
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY AROUND 3-4AM AS THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES FARTHER INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL UTAH BEFORE LOSING STRENGTH,
HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
WASATCH FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND UPWARDS OF AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OGDEN AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH AROUND 12PM.
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EASTWARD, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO BUILD INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THIS INSTABILITY PAIRED WITH THE INCREASED LOWER-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 1-2PM IN FAR NORTHERN UTAH FROM THE
THE RAFT RIVER MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CACHE VALLEY, AND
NORTH OF BRIGHAM CITY.
THE BASE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, LEAVING A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, HELPING TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA, HOWEVER, ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT THIS TIME DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FRIDAY FORWARD, A DRY AND HOT RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER UTAH,
ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE ALONGSIDE VERY DRY CONDITIONS. AS PART OF THIS BROAD
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE
WILL PUSH, AND WHETHER OR NOT SOUTHERN UTAH GETS INTO THE MIX.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCES IS SHOWING LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE OF
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
ROUGHLY 23-00Z BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 11Z, BECOMING LIGHTER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 14-18Z, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS
TO ~8KFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS UNDER INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AIRSPACE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM KSLC
NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CRITICAL RH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY,
REACHING 30-40 MPH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. THIS AREA OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS A SIMILAR AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL UTAH. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING ACCORDINGLY.
THIS COLD FRONT, CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT THEN STALLING,
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING
IN POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK
WHERE WINDS ARE LOCALLY STRONGER. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, AFTER WHICH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ484-489-493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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