480
FXUS65 KSLC 091000
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHERN UT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ESTABLISHES BY FRIDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE PACNW REGION WILL PIVOT INTO NORTHERN UTAH,
HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VEIL OF CLOUD COVER
ALREADY DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS INCREASES, WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
WEAK ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST NEVADA (TIED TO
THE INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT). THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH COVERING
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY AROUND 3-4AM AS THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES FARTHER INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL UTAH BEFORE LOSING STRENGTH,
HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
WASATCH FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND UPWARDS OF AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OGDEN AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH AROUND 12PM.
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EASTWARD, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO BUILD INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THIS INSTABILITY PAIRED WITH THE INCREASED LOWER-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 1-2PM IN FAR NORTHERN UTAH FROM THE
THE RAFT RIVER MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CACHE VALLEY, AND
NORTH OF BRIGHAM CITY.
THE BASE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, LEAVING A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, HELPING TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA, HOWEVER, ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT THIS TIME DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FRIDAY FORWARD, A DRY AND HOT RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER UTAH,
ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE ALONGSIDE VERY DRY CONDITIONS. AS PART OF THIS BROAD
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE
WILL PUSH, AND WHETHER OR NOT SOUTHERN UTAH GETS INTO THE MIX.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCES IS SHOWING LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE OF
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS
EXPECTED. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 12Z WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN STARTING AROUND 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING PLACEMENT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH ELEVATED WINDS PERSISTING ON
OCCASION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN UT TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS OCCURRING
NEAR KLGU AND PERHAPS KEVW AND KOGD.
FIRE WEATHER
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO UTAH.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80 AND NEARER THE IDAHO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BRING MODESTLY CALMER WINDS WHICH WILL
HELP TO ABATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
ACCORDINGLY. THAT SAID, THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES.
THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER THEN CENTRAL UTAH
THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH, AND CENTRAL UTAH AHEAD
OF WHERE THE FRONTS PROGRESS IS HALTED. WITH THESE GUSTS LIKELY IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AND HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS, WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOME PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UTAH TO SEE SOME RELIEF IN REGARDS TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS,
BUT WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN TO EASTERN UTAH, YIELDING ANOTHER DAY WITH AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE DEEPER FLOW SHIFT MORE WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WINDS
WILL RELAX IN TURN, BUT WITH WIDESPREAD DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY,
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHERE WINDS DO PICK UP SUFFICIENTLY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ484-489-493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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