727
FXUS65 KSLC 091719
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1119 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY, WITH THE THREAT BECOMING
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH ON WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY DECREASE,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A KELY-KSLC LINE. SHOWERS
WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, PRIMARILY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT, EARLIER, WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED FROM WEBER
COUNTY INTO THE CACHE VALLEY AS OF THIS WRITING. OVERALL, COVERAGE
WILL TEND TO DECREASE AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFT INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING. STILL, WITH CLOUD
COVER ALSO DECREASING AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO BE PROVIDE AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.
FOR THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THE POSITION OF THE JET WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN THE FROM OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG AND 35 KTS OR MORE OF SHEAR PER THE LATEST RAP, ENOUGH TO
BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION INTO PLAY. GIVEN THE
RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS, PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS,
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
HOWEVER, THE INGREDIENTS DO EXIST TO PRODUCE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BRING A SMALL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH. COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA OVER IDAHO
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER NORTHERN UTAH, HOWEVER. THOUGH NORTHERN
UTAH MAXES SHOULD RETURN TO VALUES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING DRY FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL DROP MAXES BY ABOUT 5F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE EXITING, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IS A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE SPINNING
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING 10F ABOVE CLIMO. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOLUTION WHERE A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY, SKIRTING NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING,
BRINGING IN A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY FRONT TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FOR DAY 7 AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF AFTER 23-00Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER, <7KTS, AFTER 03Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
UT/SOUTHWEST WY, RESULTING IN SOME SQUIRRELLY WINDS AND LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE OF MVFR VIS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE UT-ID BORDER
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL LARGELY
END BY 22Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING FOR THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25-35KTS WILL PERSIST AHEAD
OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER ROUGHLY KDTA-KPVU.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-30KTS BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND
WILL STALL AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE, COMBINING WITH THE CONTINUED
VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN UTAH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER, AND ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME OVER WESTERN UTAH, BUT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ENOUGH
TO KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN UTAH COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BRING A RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ484-489-493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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