439
FXUS65 KSLC 101633
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1033 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST UTAH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING
VALUES UP TO 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A DRY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, IT WILL BRING A
DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VERY DRY, A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THOSE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NORTHWEST UTAH, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF
ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH DURING THIS TIME. THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING, THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXTREMELY DRY, SO EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE RH VALUES
WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW. THUS, HAVE ADDED NORTHWEST UTAH TO TODAY'S
RED FLAG WARNING.
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM, WINDS WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FINALLY DECREASING THE FIRE DANGER
SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA. OVER NORTHERN UTAH, LOOKING AT MAXES UP TO
5F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH RATHER MILD CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THE
AIRMASS WILL THEN STEADILY WARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL
WARM UP TO 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO START THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BULLISH ABOUT A CANADIAN TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
SATURDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THIS PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW, ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR EXAMPLE, LATEST GFS
IS INDICATING PW VALUES IN THE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THAT TIME. GIVEN ANTICIPATED DRY LOWER
LEVELS, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL,
RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT DRY LIGHTNING.
THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO CROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND MOVE INTO COLORADO ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
CURRENT THINKING IS AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY, BUT MOISTURE FROM SATURDAY WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASE IN WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
WITH THE EXIT OF THAT TROUGH, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST DAY SEVEN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND THE
POTENTIALLY FOR QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, INCREASING TO GUSTS AROUND
30KTS FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING 01-02Z WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME COULD EVEN
EXCEED 35KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY SHIFTING TO LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
10-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY TURNING TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN UT AROUND 22-23Z, MAKE IT THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT BY 03Z,
AND KCDC-KSGU BY 07-09Z. THE HIGHEST WINDS, REACHING UP TO 35-40KTS,
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING KSVR-KPVU-
KU14-KSGU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, THOUGH BLOWING DUST
IN PRONE AREAS COULD RESULT IN MVFR VIS WITH THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE STATE OF
UTAH TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUS, THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES
FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. HAVE ADDED NORTHWEST UTAH TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AS WINDS BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE RISING, IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL RELAX THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PACIFIC RIDGE, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY WITH
LOWER LEVELS REMAINING DRY. THUS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING,
AND THIS COULD CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, AND
THIS MAY BE ANOTHER FACTOR THAT INCREASES FIRE DANGER OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-484-489-
493-494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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