422
FXUS65 KSLC 111011
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1033 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A DRY COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH BLACK RIDGE CANYON BETWEEN CEDAR CITY AND ST.
GEORGE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING
AROUND 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, INCREASING AGAIN FROM
MONDAY FORWARD AND REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION
THROUGH UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING A PERIOD OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. ALREADY, WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 35-40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVED OVERHEAD. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-15 CORRIDOR, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANNELING OF WINDS
THROUGH TERRAIN CONSTRICTIONS BETWEEN CEDAR CITY AND ST. GEORGE
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH PEAK
GUSTS EXPECTED BETWEEN 50 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM
KANARRAVILLE TO TOQUERVILLE (AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO HURRICANE). AS
OF THE LATEST SUITE OF HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS AROUND A
10% CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH THROUGH THIS AREA (90% CHANCE),
A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
FROM 3AM THROUGH 9AM. AFTER 9AM, THESE STRONG GAP WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE EFFECTS OF THERMAL MIXING ALLOW FOR LESS
CONSTRICTION OF WINDS.
WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT AROUND 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S. THURSDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A
NICE RELIEF FROM STRONG WINDS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS
OVERHEAD WINDS WEAKEN AND CONDITIONS STABILIZE.
A WARM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES (PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN UTAH). HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHT
MODERATION BY SUNDAY, AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEING INTRODUCED
FROM MONDAY FORWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (PUSHING 93-95 DEGREES ON THE WASATCH FRONT AND 105
IN ST. GEORGE BY TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY), RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
WILL GREATLY INCREASE. IN FACT, THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 90% CHANCE
OF HEATRISK REACHING THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY (GREATLY AFFECTING
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING/ HYDRATION) AND AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE OF REACHING THE
"MAJOR" CATEGORY (AFFECTING A MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION). WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
LASTLY, THIS EVENING'S MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE IT'S NOT QUITE WHAT
WE'D DESCRIBE AS "MONSOONAL MOISTURE", PRECIPITABLE WATER
(MEASURE OF TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT) VALUES (PER ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT) WILL BE PUSHING UPWARDS OF 200-215 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, ANTICIPATE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY OVER SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN FEATURES AND ADJACENT VALLEY
AREAS. GIVEN THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT,
A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER SLOT CANYONS, DRY
WASHES, AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 933 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 933 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS TAPER OFF BETWEEN 04-05Z, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE BETWEEN ~13-16Z THIS
MORNING AS A DRAINAGE WINDS COMPETE WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW,
BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST REGIONAL
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY EXCEPT KSGU, WHERE CANYON
GAP WINDS MAY KEEP GUSTS ELEVATED INTO THE LATE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS AREAWIDE WILL THEN RETURN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY ONWARD. RIDGING WILL INCREASE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING DAYTIME WINDS AND GUSTS TO BE
MUCH MORE MODEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ALONGSIDE
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, SUPPORTING CONTINUED ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS DO INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF MINOR INCURSION OF MOISTURE TO
SOUTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED DAYTIME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL, BUT
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. MOISTURE THEN ONCE AGAIN
DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CURRENTLY NOTED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ123.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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