233
FXUS65 KSLC 111750
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1150 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING AROUND 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, INCREASING FURTHER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, REACHING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE HEATRISK BY WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN
AND EASTERN VALLEYS ALONGSIDE VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES,
LEADING TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT LARGELY THROUGH THE REGION AND
DISSIPATING WITH DAYTIME MIXING THIS MORNING, SEEING TEMPERATURES
5-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT THIS TO REFLECT IN THE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN ALL BUT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS (WASHINGTON COUNTY)
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREST 100F+ THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, THIS RELIEF IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, WITH UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING FRIDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS HIGHS CLIMB TOWARDS 93-95
DEGREES ON THE WASATCH FRONT AND 105 IN ST. GEORGE BY TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY, RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL GREATLY INCREASE. IN
FACT, THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 90% CHANCE OF HEATRISK REACHING THE
"MODERATE" CATEGORY (GREATLY AFFECTING THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING/ HYDRATION) AND AROUND A
15-20% CHANCE OF REACHING THE "MAJOR" CATEGORY (AFFECTING A
MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION).
A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING STABILITY
UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GIVE SOME RELIEF ACROSS THE
REGION FROM GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN DRIVING RECENT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. BY FRIDAY, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
OVERHEAD FLOW, PUTTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME, AND DRIVING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD
AREA-WIDE, THE UINTA BASIN AND EASTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS PUSHING 20-35 MPH IN ISOLATED AREAS WITH
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DRIVE IMPACT HEADLINES, THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IN ADDITION, THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND
INCREASE PWATS FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS PUT TOTAL COLUMN WATER AROUND 0.4-0.6 IN,
WITH A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS FROM THE EPS SUGGESTING PWATS COULD
REACH AS HIGH AS 1.1 IN (UPWARDS OF 200-215 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THAT SAID, BOTH THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEING SO
DRY AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOURCE REGION
BEING ELEVATED WOULD SUGGEST HIGH- BASED CONVECTION AND MORE OF A
WIND/DRY LIGHTNING THREAT THAN A FLOODING THREAT LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MORE
MOIST END OF THE SPREAD, OR THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THIS WILL WARRANT
GREATER ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER SLOT CANYONS, DRY WASHES, AND RECENT
BURN SCARS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 933 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KSLC... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
TAPER OFF BETWEEN 04-05Z, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE BETWEEN ~13-16Z THIS
MORNING AS A DRAINAGE WINDS COMPETE WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST
FLOW, BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST REGIONAL
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY EXCEPT KSGU, WHERE CANYON
GAP WINDS MAY KEEP GUSTS ELEVATED INTO THE LATE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 411 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS AREAWIDE WILL THEN RETURN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY ONWARD. RIDGING WILL INCREASE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING DAYTIME WINDS AND GUSTS TO BE
MUCH MORE MODEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ALONGSIDE
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, SUPPORTING CONTINUED ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS DO INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF MINOR INCURSION OF MOISTURE TO
SOUTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED DAYTIME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL, BUT
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. MOISTURE THEN ONCE AGAIN
DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CURRENTLY NOTED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WESSLER
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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