900
FXUS65 KSLC 120439
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY HEATRISK VALLEYS IN THE MODERATE RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN UTAH MAY COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FURTHER
INCREASING FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A ROUGHLY ZONAL
FLOW BETWEEN AN EXITING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR NORTHERN UTAH, AVERAGING 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
A TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO DROP DOWN INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA FROM
CANADA, MOVING OVER THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE. FOR
FRIDAY, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH, MAKING THEM GUSTY ENOUGH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
FOR SATURDAY, THE CANADIAN TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INTRODUCE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH.
IN MOST GUIDANCE, THIS MOISTURE STAYS PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING.
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH WILL THEN
GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY. THE WILDCARD FOR SUNDAY IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PROFILE THAT WOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMPING
UP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY DRY, THESE WINDS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THAT BACKDOOR TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, FORECAST HEATRISK VALUES GO INTO THE ORANGE
(MODERATE) RANGE, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW AROUND 05-06Z. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 16Z
BEFORE REVERTING TO A NORTHERLY UPVALLEY FLOW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREAWIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH INCREASING WINDS OVER
EASTERN UTAH JUST ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH, PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WOULD BE PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL, RESULTING IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING. FOR
SUNDAY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
DRY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE, RESULTING
IN WETTER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH, THIS COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
FURTHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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