532
FXUS65 KSLC 121012
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY HEATRISK VALLEYS IN THE MODERATE RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN UTAH MAY COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FURTHER
INCREASING FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A ROUGHLY ZONAL
FLOW BETWEEN AN EXITING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR NORTHERN UTAH, AVERAGING 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
A TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO DROP DOWN INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA FROM
CANADA, MOVING OVER THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE. FOR
FRIDAY, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH, MAKING THEM GUSTY ENOUGH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
FOR SATURDAY, THE CANADIAN TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INTRODUCE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH.
IN MOST GUIDANCE, THIS MOISTURE STAYS PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING.
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH WILL THEN
GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY. THE WILDCARD FOR SUNDAY IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PROFILE THAT WOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMPING
UP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY DRY, THESE WINDS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THAT BACKDOOR TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, FORECAST HEATRISK VALUES GO INTO THE ORANGE
(MODERATE) RANGE, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW AROUND 05-06Z. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 16Z
BEFORE REVERTING TO A NORTHERLY UPVALLEY FLOW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREAWIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH POCKETS OF NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
UTAH FIRE ZONES, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS, SAN RAFAEL
SWELL, TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN. WINDS GUSTS
WILL APPROACH 25 MPH, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS NORTH WHERE
FUELS REMAIN APPROACHING CRITICAL, WHILE RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, PRIMARILY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER
QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
ULTIMATELY, THERE WILL BE A STALLED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
FEATURE PRIMARILY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, MEANWHILE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE RESIDES
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK. WHILE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND WILL MAKE A QUICK DEPARTURE BY MONDAY, LEAVING A MORE
BENIGN DAY TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON RH
VALUES TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH AND EASTERN UTAH WHERE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FAVOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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