070
FXUS65 KSLC 121903
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
103 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VALLEY HEATRISK VALLEYS IN THE MODERATE RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN UTAH MAY COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FURTHER
INCREASING FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1039 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A ROUGHLY ZONAL
FLOW BETWEEN AN EXITING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR NORTHERN UTAH, AVERAGING 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
A TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO DROP DOWN INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA FROM
CANADA, MOVING OVER THE FRONT SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE. FOR
FRIDAY, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH, MAKING THEM GUSTY ENOUGH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
FOR SATURDAY, THE CANADIAN TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INTRODUCE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH.
IN MOST GUIDANCE, THIS MOISTURE STAYS PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING.
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH WILL THEN
GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY. THE WILDCARD FOR SUNDAY IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PROFILE THAT WOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMPING
UP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY DRY, THESE WINDS COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THAT BACKDOOR TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, FORECAST HEATRISK VALUES GO INTO THE ORANGE
(MODERATE) RANGE, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 606 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 606 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 16Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN SWITCHING TO THE TO A NORTHERLY
UPVALLEY FLOW BETWEEN 16-18Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN BY AROUND 4Z THIS EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREAWIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND EASTERN UTAH WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A MILD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 89 AND
NORTH OF I-70. OTHERWISE WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY BELOW 30 PERCENT IS FORECAST TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 494, 496 AND 498, WITH
LIGHTNING COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED FURTHER WEST
ACROSS ZONES 495 AND 497. THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR
THUS FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. VERY LOW
DAYTIME RH AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CHURCH
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page