404
FXUS65 KSLC 130441
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1041 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SUNDAY THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH, WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BRINGING A RETURN TO HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
WIDESPREAD VALLEY HEATRISK VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THESE HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
EVENING, WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE
INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA. THIS IS BRINGING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WHICH IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRAW
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES, WHICH WERE IN THE 0.2 TO
0.4 INCH RANGE THIS MORNING, ARE NOW PREDOMINATELY IN THE 0.5 TO
0.6 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, INDICATING THAT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO MOVE IN. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HREF MEAN PW VALUES
ARE ABOVE 0.7 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH, AND IN EXCESS OF 0.8
INCH NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER.
GIVEN HOW DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
LOWER LEVELS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN DRY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY THE AFTERNOON, THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL HITTING THE GROUND FROM THE STORMS, THIS
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL DRY LIGHTNING, SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY EVENING, ANTICIPATING THE
MOISTURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL,
WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION SPREADING OUT FROM NEVADA AT THIS TIME INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH, BRINGING A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO TRACK FARTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN UTAH FROM
SPREADING INTO NORTHERN UTAH. BY THIS TIME, WITH MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
AS THAT TROUGH EXITS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. BY MIDWEEK, ANTICIPATING MAXES UP TO 15F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, RESULTING IN ORANGE (MODERATE) HEATRISK VALUES
FOR MOST UTAH VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO START THE
WEEK, BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ENOUGH
WINDS TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THOUGH A FEW INSTANCES OF VARIABLE WINDS
MAY OCCUR. AN EARLIER SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-16Z
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AFTER 16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE KSLC TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KCDC AND KSGU AFTER 18Z WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OF THESE STORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS RESIDING WITHIN THE 20Z-02Z
TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH BASED MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH STORMS SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY LIGHTNING
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 494, 496
AND 498, WITH LIGHTNING COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER WEST ACROSS ZONES 495 AND 497. THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER LEVELS ON SUNDAY MAINTAINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. VERY LOW DAYTIME RH AND POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE GENERALLY LIGHT
TO START THE WEEK, BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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