576
FXUS65 KSLC 171911
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
111 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1028 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE HIGHS MOVE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35-45 MPH COMBINED WITH VERY
DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN UTAH ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1028 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL UTAH, WHERE THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK AND DRY BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE DRY, AND THIS COMBINED TO CREATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WERE ON THE HOT SIDE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXES 5-7F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WITH ITS
MAIN IMPACT BEING TO SIMPLY CURB THE WARMING TREND. THUS, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONT, BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE FROM THE CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING, PUTTING BREEZY WINDS BACK IN THE
FORECAST AND NECESSITATING ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SAME
AREAS AS TODAY.
BEHIND THAT TRAILING SHORTWAVE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE, SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MUCH LIGHTER FLOW OVER THE
AREA AND BRING A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR SOUTHERN
UTAH, DECREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR THE AREA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
EAST THEREAFTER, MOVING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROUGH (THE ONE NUDGING THE
RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY) WILL BRING MODESTLY LESS WARM TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHWEST UTAH. INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
TO BRING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN UTAH, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE TOO HIGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE BRINGS THE ILL-DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ITS POSITION SHOULD QUICKLY
BRING A DRY TONGUE OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, WIPING OUT THE
PREVIOUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY GAINS, BUT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, PRIMARILY NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY
RETURN TO VALUES WITHIN 5F OF SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS TIME,
WITH THE LESS WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH KEEPS THINGS A BIT
UNSETTLED.
BEHIND THAT TROUGH, THE LEADING SOLUTION IN GUIDANCE IS TO BRING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING MORE HOT AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1028 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 1028 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE NORTHWEST OF THE CDC TERMINAL COULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT VIS,
PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US,
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY. AS SUCH,
INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW RH. THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THURSDAY, YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY; CONCURRENTLY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE WEST COAST, INTRODUCING INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. THIS PATTERN MAY YIELD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES REMAIN VERY POOR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ492-495.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ482-484-488-
489-493-494-496-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ497.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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