632
FXUS65 KSLC 191907
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
107 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH NORTHERN UTAH
SEEING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH COMBINED WITH VERY DRY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOCUS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15 ON SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS,
ALONG WITH DRY LIGHTNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
CONDITIONS VERY DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS COULD
INCREASE FOR SOME VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A TONGUE OF 14C
700MB TEMPERATURES PER RAP ANALYSIS EXTENDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS AXIS. THIS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR DAVIS AND SALT LAKE COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVERSPREADING SOUTHWEST
UTAH CURRENTLY, AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. LASTLY, AN ARC OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL UTAH.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FUEL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WASATCH
PLATEAU AND WESTERN UINTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS
NEVADA. HOWEVER, LATER THIS EVENING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST UTAH PER HI-RES GUIDANCE.
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING ISOLATED ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH, HOWEVER COULD SEE
LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AREAS OF VIRGA.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING A NOTABLE COOLING TREND OF 5-8F ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, AND
2-4F ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. MEANWHILE, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MID
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE HEATRISK AND
LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HEAT RELATED ISSUES DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH
LOW-END (10-15%) CHANCES FOR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21-03Z, BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SOME ENHANCED
BREEZES DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AIRSPACE, EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME ENHANCED SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
A HOT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR THUS FAR ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH, AND WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THUS
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA CONTINUES BEYOND SUNSET.
MEANWHILE HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ZONES 493, 488 AND PERHAPS 480 THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING, WHICH
MAY BRING ROGUE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BUT LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
BRINGING A COOLING TREND. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH THE AXIS OF GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-15. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, AND LOCAL POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION, HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONE 478 FOR NOW.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
WARMING TREND, WITH A RETURN TO HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ478.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ104-105.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT SATURDAY
FOR UTZ492-495.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ482-484-
488-489-493-494-496-498.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR UTZ497.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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