162
FXUS65 KSLC 200353
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15 ON SATURDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY DRY, WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH
DRY LIGHTNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
CONDITIONS VERY DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS COULD INCREASE FOR SOME
VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC RIDGE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
INTO COLORADO TODAY AS A DISORGANIZED TROUGH MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE CENTER OF THAT SYSTEM IS NOW NEAR FAR NORTHWEST
UTAH WITH THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY NEAR A KTMT-KEVW LINE. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING, WITH THESE STORMS PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS, WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST INTO IDAHO.
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE APPROACH OF A
TRAILING WAVE FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AT LOWER
LEVELS, THERE IS CONCERN THAT COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT, BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN UTAH WHERE MAXES
SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 10F LESS WARM THAN TODAY'S VALUES. IN A
LINGERING UNSETTLED AIRMASS, SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO START THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING A STEADY WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET HOT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FOR SOME VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE
WASATCH FRONT.
AVIATION...KSLC
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS PRIOR TO AROUND 07Z SAT, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT S WINDS TO
PREVAIL INTO THE DAY ALONG WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NW AROUND 17-19Z SAT, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COULD RESULT IN
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (LIKELY FROM THE WEST) TO AROUND 35 KTS. VFR
CONDS ANTICIPATED TO STILL PREVAIL, WITH A LOW (5% CHANCE) THAT
SOMETHING ATOP THE TERMINAL COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR VIS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CLEAR
SKIES WITH MODESTLY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS (UP TO AROUND 25 KTS)
EXPECTED. FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH 09Z OR SO SAT,
THOUGH VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST. AFTER A LULL, EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, BRINGING RENEWED THREAT OF GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS. VFR CONDS STILL LARGELY EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW (~5%) CHANCE ANY STRONGER CELL MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS TO MVFR RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING A COOLING TREND. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH THE AXIS OF GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING
TO AREAS EAST OF I-15. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
A BIT WEAKER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY,
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND LOCAL POCKETS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN, SO WILL KEEP
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR NORTHWEST UTAH (ZONE 478).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY,
BRINGING A WARMING TREND, WITH A RETURN TO HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ478.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ104-105.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ492-495.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ482-484-
488-489-493-494-496-498.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ497.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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