248
FXUS65 KSLC 210940
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1220 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15 ON SATURDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY DRY, WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH
DRY LIGHTNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
CONDITIONS VERY DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS COULD INCREASE FOR SOME
VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1220 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH, CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING AND COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE IDAHO
BORDER REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH THE THREAT
SHIFTING EAST OF THE WASATCH CREST INTO THE BEAR RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION, WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT EAST OF THE WASATCH CREST EXTENDING INTO UINTA
COUNTY WY. FURTHER WEST, A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT MAY MUTE THE MICROBURST THREAT A BIT, WHICH SEEMS TO
BE INDICATED IN HI-RES GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-EVENING.
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
COOLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMO. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, AND A RETURN TO HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE LENDS TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES AS IT MOVES INLAND, BUT THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION, ISSUED 942 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KSLC...VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE FROM VARIOUS WILDFIRES ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NEARBY BONNEVILLE FIRE EAST OF THE TERMINAL MAY
PRODUCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SMOKE
SETTLES TO THE VALLEY FLOOR, DEPENDENT ON CONTINUED FIRE ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES BETWEEN 10-
14Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
FROM VARIOUS WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO HEAVY SURFACE
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT NEAR
ACTIVE WILDFIRES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT,
WITH MORE TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE.
FIRE WEATHER
A MORE SEASONAL DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS UT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM
MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A DECREASE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
SOMEWHAT. VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE STATEWIDE WITH
SOUTHERN UT FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND GUSTS
FROM 20-30MPH.
COME MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
REGION SERVING TO RAISE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY ACROSS MOST UT VALLEYS, WITH LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY SEEING TEMPERATURES BREAK INTO THE 100S.
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO SEE A STEADY DROP ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY STARTING WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO SETTLE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY
APPEARS TO POTENTIALLY USHER IN A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS SEE AN INCREASE AREAWIDE, AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS THURSDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UT. WINDS APPEAR TO
STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SURROUNDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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