510
FXUS65 KSLC 221117
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
516 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY, WITH HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
SOUTHERN UTAH. LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS.
- STRENGTHENING AND DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 951 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER, HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS UTAH,
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR THE BORDER WITH LITTLE PROGRESS
FURTHER EAST. SMOKE FROM LOCAL FIRES INCLUDING THE HASTINGS,
BONNEVILLE, IRON AND SAWMILL FIRES AS WELL AS FIRES IN NEVADA AND
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT UTAH. LOW-LEVEL SMOKE IS MOST
LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE ABOVE FIRES THROUGH
MONDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS STATES,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE HOT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THOSE MOST PRONE TO HEAT INCLUDING
THE ELDERLY AS WELL AS UNSHELTERED POPULATIONS AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PROPERLY
HYDRATE DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING CARRYING ENOUGH WATER
ON HIKES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FALL SHORT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PWS AROUND
95 TO 98 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC/BAJA STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
LARGELY ALOFT, WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SUFFICIENT TO
BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH BY THURSDAY TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, THOUGH, AGAIN,
CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY HIGH-BASED WITH THE EVER PRESENT
THREAT OF MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY, BRINGING A DRY, HOT AND WINDY PATTERN INTO
UTAH...WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NEARLY ALL ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN REALITY, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OUTSIDE OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER
A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION, ISSUED 951 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LIGHT VARIABLE OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 17-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL, HOWEVER SMOKE
FROM NEARBY WILDFIRES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS,
PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE/SUNSET.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS, WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VIS, PARTICULARLY AROUND
SUNRISE/SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER UTAH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HOT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO START THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH RESULTING IN POCKETS OF
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ZONES 482, 489, AND
498.
HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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