311
FXUS65 KSLC 221841
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1241 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HOT TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
- MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS.
- STRONG AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK VALUES
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESS,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE DURATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
MIDWEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE NORTH AS
WELL. INITIALLY THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THE APPARENT
INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER THIS CYCLE
IN SPREADING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
SWEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS FROM
WEDNESDAY'S LIGHTNING, AND EXISTING FIRES ALREADY ON THE
LANDSCAPE.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH UNCERTAINTY CENTERING AROUND THE
EXACT TIMING. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A DRAMATIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT, FALLING FROM THE MID 90S
FRIDAY (AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING),
INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY. A LESS DRAMATIC COOLING TREND OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION
KSLC...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AFTER ~03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL, THOUGH WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD PRODUCE
REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE
AND SUNSET.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAY BECOME A BIT
SQUIRRELLY NEAR KLGU OVERNIGHT AS A FEW LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ~10-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST AREAS, THOUGH WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY RESULT IN SLANTWISE VIS
REDUCTIONS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PARTICULARLY SITES
CLOSER TO WILDFIRES SUCH AS KPVU AND KHCR, AND AROUND
SUNRISE/SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY, AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. AFTERNOON RH
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY ALL ELEVATIONS BELOW
8000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MARGINAL TO
POOR IN THE NORTH, AND NEARLY NON-EXISTANT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
UTAH. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL TREND A LITTLE STRONGER TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, WHICH PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 494, 496 AND 498.
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND
POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE HIGH BASED WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOWS A
THREAT. HOWEVER, A QUICK TRANSITION FROM DRY TO A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY STORMS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE
HELD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS
TO BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AS A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS FRIDAY LOOK
LIKELY TO REACH THE 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES UTAH SATURDAY, THESE WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 50 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL TIMING
WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THESE STRONG WINDS EXTEND
SATURDAY, BUT LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-70/US-50 CORRIDOR.
AS THIS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ494-496-
498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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