873
FXUS65 KSLC 061921
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
121 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
- ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS IN LATE WEEK ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME HEATRISK ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES NOTED.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER HOT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS UTAH ACHIEVED MID 90S TO LOW 100S,
WITH KSLC REPORTING ITS FIRST 100+ DEGREE DAY OF 2026. EVEN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SW WY IS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ASIDE FROM THE RIDGE AND HEAT, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING WITH IT
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION TODAY, AS WELL AS SOME
ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS OVER THE UINTAS. WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH BY AND
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINING OVERHEAD. WITH THE CORRESPONDING SHIFT OF THE RIDGE,
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL GENERALLY SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE A COUPLE
DEGREES WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SEES TEMPS DIP A
COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOISTURE AND EXTRA LIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE, CAM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH BASED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GENERALLY
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH INITIALLY
CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO SHIFT OFF TERRAIN. CAMS ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SUGGEST MAYBE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING, CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND MOISTURE LARGELY AT OR ABOVE THE MID LEVELS, DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYERS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, AND
LOCALLY HIGHER. IN TURN, THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM WHAT DOES FORM, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL GUSTS
~40-50 MPH. THAT SAID, HREF/REFS MAX DOES CARRY SOME ISOLATED 60+
MPH GUSTS, WHICH IS ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORTED BY SOME SOURCES OF
ML GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION, A MODEST STJ REMAINS EXTENDED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, AND
THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS A BIT SOUTHWESTWARD. COVERAGE OF HIGH
BASED CONVECTION IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FOR TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES STARTING TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY, ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY TO FURTHER SHIFT NORTH AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTURE
CONTINUES. LIKE MONDAY, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WATER IS EXPECTED
FROM MOST ACTIVITY, BUT THE HIGH BASED NATURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE WILL
LARGELY SCOUR OUT, AND THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FORECAST INFLUENCE FRIDAY ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS TO BECOME
CENTERED MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND THE BROADER
SUITE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING, WITH MEAN H7 TEMPERATURES LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE
20-24C RANGE OR SO. THIS WOULD BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, IF NOT AT OR NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UPWARDS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN, LIKELY
PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES LOW TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AROUND 100-105 FOR MUCH OF THE WASATCH
FRONT AND URBAN CORRIDOR, MID 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MOST OTHER UTAH
VALLEYS, AND AROUND 105-110 IN LOW ELEVATION SOUTHERN UTAH AREAS
LIKE LAKE POWELL, LOWER ZION, AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD, ONLY OFFERING MODEST
RELIEF. THE PROLONGED ANOMALOUS HEAT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS, WITH THE HEATRISK PRODUCT ALREADY FAVORING
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF "MAJOR" (LEVEL 3/4) HEATRISK, AND LOCALLY
"EXTREME" (LEVEL 4/4). THOSE WITH OUTDOOR WORK OR RECREATION PLANS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THIS, AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
HEAT PRECAUTIONS (LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AMPLE
HYDRATION, TAKE BREAKS AND HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL, ETC).
WHILE STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE MURKY, MODELS
STILL MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINNING TO
OPEN UP THE TAP FOR SOME RETURN OF MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE BY THE
MIDDLE OF JULY. CURRENTLY, JULY 14TH-15TH STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EARLIEST WE'D SEE THIS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY 04Z THIS EVENING, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z TOMORROW AND INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE. THERE IS
A CHANCE (20-40%) THAT A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF
ROUGE OUTFLOW WINDS REACHING THE TERMINAL - OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE
DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED VIRGA FROM AROUND 18Z TO 03Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW WILL BRING A GREATER
CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHWEST UTAH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN RECENT DAYS, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST TERMINALS
BY AROUND NOON.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH BASED MOISTURE WHICH SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70/US-50.
IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE, RH HAS
TRENDED HIGHER TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY AND ELEVATED RH AGAIN TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. FURTHER SOUTH, DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH
VALUES TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW 15% ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN ZONE 495 AND 497.
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL DROP DAYTIME
RH VALUES BELOW 15% ACROSS MOST ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FEET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME THESE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DON'T
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND
VERY LOW RH TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST NEXT
WEEK TO ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AROUND
THE JULY 14TH-15TH TIMEFRAME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...VAN CLEAVE
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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