309
FXUS65 KSLC 061922
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
122 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY, DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- A HEAT WAVE LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
BRING AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BELOW 6000 FEET WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT WILL APPROACH 105 DURING THIS TIME, AND 110 AROUND
ST GEORGE AND ZION CANYON.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN HELPED ADVECT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY SEEING HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE AS IT TRIES
TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ADDITION
CONVECTION CURRENTLY INITIATING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE WASATCH FRONT. AGAIN SOME QUESTION
REMAINS REGARDING HOW WELL THIS CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AS
IT SPREADS OF THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA AND INTO THE DESERT,
BUT ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES PERSIST WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
MICROBURST WINDS GIVEN THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT.
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL
BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST ELEVATIONS BELOW 6000 FEET WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 100F
MARK, THEN TREND A LITTLE HOTTER SUNDAY. FOR KSLC, THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE MAX TEMPS FROM THE NBM RUN 101-105 SATURDAY, 102-106
SUNDAY, AND 100-105 MONDAY, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF TYING THE ALL
TIME RECORD OF 107F BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT
KSGU RUNS AT OR ABOVE 110 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF MAJOR AND LOCALLY EXTREME HEATRISK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW APPRECIABLE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION, MOSTLY LIKELY DURING
THE JULY 14TH-15 TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
KSLC...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT
KSLC, WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 19Z
OR AS LATE AS 22Z OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW. SPEAKING OF OUTFLOW, WHILE
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-40KTS IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-04Z, CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING OFF THE OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WHERE ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-50KTS...WHERE THE
HIGHER END WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
LARGELY LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH BASED MOISTURE WHICH SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70/US-50. IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE, RH HAS TRENDED HIGHER
TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND
ELEVATED RH AGAIN TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
FURTHER SOUTH, DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO FALL
NEAR OR BELOW 15% ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ZONE 495 AND
497.
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL DROP DAYTIME
RH VALUES BELOW 15% ACROSS MOST ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FEET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME THESE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DON'T
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND
VERY LOW RH TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST NEXT
WEEK TO ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AROUND
THE JULY 14TH-15TH TIMEFRAME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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