617
FXUS65 KSLC 080445
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1045 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT AND SOUTHWEST WY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS CAPABLE OF GUSTS TO 50MPH WITH SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 58MPH.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS GUSTS INCREASE
WITH A DECREASE IN RH.
- PROBABILITIES FOR A NOTABLE HEAT WAVE DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK
CONTINUE TO INCREASE RESULTING IN AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING
STATEWIDE. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVERHEAD. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD UT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTHWEST UT,
DEEPENING SOMEWHAT WITH EASTERN EXTENT. AS SUCH, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WY. MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH RANGING FROM 40-50KTS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
UT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SERVING TO INCREASE EFF. SHEAR TO AROUND
20-30KTS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND LONGER-LIVED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH TO AROUND 1600-1800J/KG, AND WITH AMPLE FLOW
ALOFT, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58MPH)
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO 70MPH. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS RESIDE IN WESTERN BOX ELDER
COUNTY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING EASTERN EXTENT.
LATER TOMORROW EVENING INTO THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME WESTERLY/ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH
MODEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH CONVECTION REMAINING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MODERATED, ALBEIT STILL QUITE HOT DURING THIS TIME GIVEN A MORE
STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN.
ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. ON
FRIDAY, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH 100F ACROSS MUCH OF UT.
ON SATURDAY, NEARLY ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK INTO
THE 100S WITH LOWER WASHINGTON NEARING 110F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING HEATRISK, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE "MAJOR" DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY WITH POCKETS OF "EXTREME" DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT. BOTH AREAS OF "MAJOR" AND "EXTREME" WILL INCREASE IN
SIZE ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING INTO BOTH SALT LAKE CITY AND PROVO, GIVEN
EXPECTED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THE THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1045 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KSLC...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A
30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AFTER
19Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL
DIMINISH BY 09Z, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND KBCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 136 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. THESE STORMS
WILL BE HIGH-BASED, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN UTAH, AND WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING, MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WINDS DECREASE FOR THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME LESS HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOISTURE TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497-498.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ493-496.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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