006
FXUS65 KSLC 081212
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
612 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1045 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT AND SOUTHWEST WY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS CAPABLE OF GUSTS TO 50MPH WITH SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 58MPH.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS GUSTS INCREASE
WITH A DECREASE IN RH.
- PROBABILITIES FOR A NOTABLE HEAT WAVE DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK
CONTINUE TO INCREASE RESULTING IN AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING
STATEWIDE. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1045 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVERHEAD. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD UT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTHWEST UT,
DEEPENING SOMEWHAT WITH EASTERN EXTENT. AS SUCH, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WY. MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH RANGING FROM 40-50KTS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
UT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SERVING TO INCREASE EFF. SHEAR TO AROUND
20-30KTS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND LONGER-LIVED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH TO AROUND 1600-1800J/KG, AND WITH AMPLE FLOW
ALOFT, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58MPH)
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO 70MPH. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS RESIDE IN WESTERN BOX ELDER
COUNTY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING EASTERN EXTENT.
LATER TOMORROW EVENING INTO THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME WESTERLY/ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH
MODEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH CONVECTION REMAINING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MODERATED, ALBEIT STILL QUITE HOT DURING THIS TIME GIVEN A MORE
STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN.
ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. ON
FRIDAY, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH 100F ACROSS MUCH OF UT.
ON SATURDAY, NEARLY ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK INTO
THE 100S WITH LOWER WASHINGTON NEARING 110F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING HEATRISK, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE "MAJOR" DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY WITH POCKETS OF "EXTREME" DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT. BOTH AREAS OF "MAJOR" AND "EXTREME" WILL INCREASE IN
SIZE ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING INTO BOTH SALT LAKE CITY AND PROVO, GIVEN
EXPECTED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THE THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 18-19Z.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 06-07Z THIS EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS
OVER 26KT/30MPH BETWEEN 01-03Z DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND KBCE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 354 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE AIRMASS WILL TREND DRIER TODAY UNDER A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15%
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, DOWN TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME VALLEY LOCALES. MEANWHILE, ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS ARE NONZERO, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED THERE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HUMIDITIES CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THURSDAY MAY
CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS REMAIN
ENHANCED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST 100
DEGREES IN MOST VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER, THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495-497-
498.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ493-496.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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