407
FXUS65 KSLC 081953
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
153 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 60 MPH.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
- A NOTABLE HEAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOST VALLEYS AND SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE A GREATER
THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING HEATRISK VALUES IN THE RED
(MAJOR) RANGE, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING, PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYONING UNDER A BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH BASED
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WHILE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH MAXES RUNNING UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, WITH THE FEATURE LOOKING A BIT BETTER DEFINED THAN
THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. OVERALL, SEEING LESS IN THE
WAY OF SHEAR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT A BIT MORE CAPE, UP TO 500
J/KG MOST LIKELY. THUS, ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH,
WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND EXTENT BOTH INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS LATER TODAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW AND ALLOWING ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WITH SOME MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO LINGER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT LESS THAN WHAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SHOOTING UP TO
RECORD CHALLENGING LEVELS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER UTAH ON SATURDAY
AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS, IF ANYTHING,
GONE UP WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOWING AT LEAST A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF RED (MAJOR) HEATRISK FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. IT SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN, WITH SOME MONTHLY AND (IN THE CASE OF THE CACHE
VALLEY) ALL TIME RECORDS FORECAST TO BE BROKEN. GIVEN THIS AND
MANY VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT, THIS
WILL PREDICTABLY BRING A QUITE INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR ALL
OF THOSE AREAS WITH AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
HEATRISK VALUES IN THE RED, WHICH INCLUDES JUST ABOUT ALL VALLEYS
(LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY EXCLUDED) AND MANY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AS
THE FORECAST COMES IN CLEARER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
AREA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES UP. WHILE THIS
WOULD DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER, IT BRINGS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION
KSLC...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE MAIN LIGHTNING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO BEFORE 00Z, HOWEVER GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN A MAJOR
QUESTION THROUGH 08Z OR SO. OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED OUTFLOW WINDS,
NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
REINFORCED AROUND ~02-04Z WITH GUSTS TO 20-30KTS AS BROADER OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH REACH KSLC. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH. THE MAIN LIGHTNING THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN A
THREAT THROUGH 08Z OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE AIRMASS WILL TREND DRIER TODAY UNDER A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15%
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, DOWN TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME VALLEY LOCALES. MEANWHILE, ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS ARE NONZERO, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED THERE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HUMIDITIES CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. FOR NOW, HAVE EXTENDED
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH INTO THURSDAY, AND WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR FRIDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST 100
DEGREES IN MOST VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER, THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-493-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG/TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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