445
FXUS65 KSLC 091001
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1104 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY
OF I-80 TOMORROW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 50 MPH.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH.
- THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY AND
MONTHLY RECORDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST VALLEYS AND SOME
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
HEATRISK VALUES IN THE RED (MAJOR) RANGE, BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS OF
WHICH DAYS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO
COME INTO FOCUS.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1104 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE
DRYING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AND ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT LESS THAN RECENT DAYS.
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SHOOTING UP TO
RECORD CHALLENGING LEVELS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER UTAH ON SATURDAY
AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS, IF ANYTHING,
GONE UP WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOWING AT LEAST A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF RED (MAJOR) HEATRISK FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. IT SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN, WITH SOME MONTHLY AND (IN THE CASE OF THE CACHE
VALLEY) ALL TIME RECORDS FORECAST TO BE BROKEN. GIVEN THIS AND
MANY VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT, THIS
WILL PREDICTABLY BRING A QUITE INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR ALL
OF THOSE AREAS WITH AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
HEATRISK VALUES IN THE RED, WHICH INCLUDES JUST ABOUT ALL VALLEYS
(LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY EXCLUDED) AND MANY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AS
THE FORECAST COMES IN CLEARER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
AREA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES UP. WHILE THIS
WOULD DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER, IT BRINGS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF >1" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, FOR EXAMPLE,
INDICATES A 60-80% OF THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE SITTING OVER THE
ENTIRE GREAT BASIN FOR A WEEK OR MORE STARTING NEXT TUESDAY. DETAILS
OF WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO
BE IRONED OUT, AS THAT WILL LIKELY INVOLVE TIMING OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES (IF ANY), WHICH CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1104 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KSLC...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z BEFORE DRYING OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE HOURS OF 21-02Z TOMORROW, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING COVERAGE.
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 17Z WITH DRAINAGE
SOUTHERLIES RETURNING AROUND 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 09Z ACROSS NORTHERN
UT AND SOUTHWEST WY BEFORE DRYING OUT. GENERALLY DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS MOST
NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM ROUGHLY
20-02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH AT
LEAST A LOCALIZED THREAT CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST 100
DEGREES IN MOST VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER, THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...VAN CLEAVE
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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