476
FXUS65 KSLC 092036
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
236 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING
DAILY, MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPREADING
INTO THE REGION BY MID-NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN ELEVATED THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, GRADUALLY LIMITING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL UTAH WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND, YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS, EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS, AND
RECORD-CHALLENGING HEAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT DANGEROUS
HEAT DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
WEEKEND, EVEN LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE 100 FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, UPWARDS OF 110 ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
GLEN CANYON AREA. TEMPERATURES TREND UP FURTHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD; THIS WILL
BE THE TEMPERATURE PEAK ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
NOT ONLY CHALLENGE DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, BUT
ALL-TIME RECORDS AS WELL. FOR EXAMPLE, KSLC CURRENTLY HAS A 35%
CHANCE TO MEET OR EXCEED THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 107 DEGREES. LOGAN
IS ANOTHER STANDOUT, WITH AN 80%+ CHANCE TO EXCEED ITS ALL-TIME
RECORD OF 103 DEGREES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. ONCE LOWS REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST
VALLEYS AND LOW-80S FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY ON SUNDAY MORNING,
THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY OVERNIGHT RELIEF, FURTHER EXACERBATING HEAT IMPACTS. THAT
SAID, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SIGNIFICANT, LONG- DURATION
HEATWAVE HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
BEGINNING SATURDAY FOR MOST LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
INCREASING MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH. PWATS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BECOMING WIDESPREAD >1" BY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK AS THE DAYS WITH
HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD THREATS STILL REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1139 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KSLC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS AFTER ~20-21Z, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A ~20%
CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS DOES DRIFT OVER THE AIRFIELD
BEFORE 02Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN
IMPACT, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS EARLY AS 23Z (10% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 40KTS BRIEFLY). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TERRAIN-
DRIVEN AFTER 02Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19-20Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH
NORTH OF I-70 AND PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF KENV-KSLC-KEVW. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
GENERALLY 20-30KTS, THOUGH STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45KTS (10% CHANCE). WINDS COULD KICK UP SOME BLDU,
RESULTING IN TEMPORARY VIS REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
BY 02Z. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40-50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH. AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
RESULTING IN VERY POOR TO VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. GIVEN ALREADY
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ELEVATED AFTERNOON
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AN INFLUX OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN RH ACROSS THE REGION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ495-496-498.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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