114
FXUS65 KSLC 101851
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1251 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1027 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY,
MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1027 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN UTAH IS UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH CONTINUES TO SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED MOISTURE
WHICH LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
5-8F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH ITS
CENTER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER UTAH. WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE QUITE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HEATRISK VALUES
INTO THE RED (MAJOR) RANGE FOR MANY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WILL GO INTO EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES, ALREADY
ABNORMALLY WARM, ARE ON TRACK TO BECOME EVEN HOTTER. JUST ABOUT
ALL VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO SEE MAXES OF 100F OR HIGHER, WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND THOSE VALUES AS WELL. DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WHERE NOT ONLY WILL
DAILY RECORDS BE IN PLAY, BUT MONTHLY AND ALL TIME RECORDS AS
WELL. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOGAN SHOWS A HIGH OF
107F, WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE ALL TIME RECORD THERE. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SALT LAKE CITY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEETING
OR EXCEEDING THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 107F ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES EAST AND PUTS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
MOST LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND
STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS,
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A BIT LESS HOT (BUT STILL
NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL), WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO NORTHWESTERLY MOST LIKELY AROUND 1930-2000Z, THOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH
EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BEFORE TURNING MORE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 03Z OR SO.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE, WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BECOME INCREASINGLY POORER THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES MONDAY, WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO
THE REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KICK OFF A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AS WELL AS CREATE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. OVERALL, EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RH
VALUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH IMPROVEMENT IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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