509
FXUS65 KSLC 102034
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
234 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY,
MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN HAS CREATED
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGH UINTAS; OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RESULTING IN AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO RECORD TO NEAR-
RECORD VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. TO PUT THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN CONTEXT, THERE
IS OVER A 60% CHANCE FOR H7 TEMPERATURES TO REACH 20C ON SUNDAY;
THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH H7 TEMPERATURE RECORDED FROM A KSLC
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING DATA CURRENTLY STANDS AT 20.2C. AS SUCH, WHILE
DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS WILL DEFINITELY BE CHALLENGED THIS
WEEKEND, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SET NEW ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. MOST NOTABLY, LOGAN HAS A 70%+ CHANCE TO MEET OR EXCEED
ITS CURRENT RECORD HIGH OF 103F ON SUNDAY. EVANSTON ALSO HAS A
60%+ CHANCE TO MEET OR EXCEED ITS CURRENT ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH OF
95F ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MOST UTAH VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN
BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL-TIME
HIGH RECORDS TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING, THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO UINTA COUNTY, WY BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND MONDAY. NOTE THAT WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WE'RE STILL MONITORING A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY TO
MID-NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS STILL IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON PWATS
1+" BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. WHILE THIS
PATTERN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER FLASH FLOODING RISK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, DAYS OF HIGHEST CONCERN REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO NORTHWESTERLY MOST LIKELY AROUND 1930-2000Z, THOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH
EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BEFORE TURNING MORE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 03Z OR SO.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE, WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BECOME INCREASINGLY POORER THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES MONDAY, WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO
THE REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KICK OFF A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AS WELL AS CREATE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. OVERALL, EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RH
VALUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH IMPROVEMENT IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
WYZ021.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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