786
FXUS65 KSLC 111113
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
513 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY,
MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. MAXES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD, AVERAGING 5-8F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE TO THE
AREA, PEAKING ON SUNDAY. JUST ABOUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AT OR ABOVE 100F FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH MAXES RUNNING UP TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL, THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES BEING FOUND OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE MANY DAILY RECORDS, AND IN THE
CASE OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CHALLENGE MONTHLY AND
ALL TIME RECORDS AS WELL. LOGAN CONTINUES TO SEE A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF SURPASSING ITS ALL-TIME
RECORD HIGH OF 103F, AND EVANSTON CONTINUES TO HAVE OVER A 60
PERCENT CHANCE TO SURPASS ITS ALL TIME RECORD OF 95F. FARTHER
SOUTH, THE CHANCES OF BREAKING THE ALL TIME RECORD HAVE GONE DOWN,
WITH GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF TYING OR
BREAKING THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 107F IN SALT LAKE CITY.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES THIS HOT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS TO THE GENERAL POPULATION
IN MOST VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND IN THE CASE OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
TO KEEP SAFE FROM THE HEAT, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED
SHOULD MOVE THEM AWAY FROM THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY IF
POSSIBLE AND STAY HYDRATED. THE BEST WAY, HOWEVER, TO PREVENT
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES WOULD BE TO STAY INSIDE IN COOLED AREAS IF
POSSIBLE.
BY SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA, PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS FLOW WILL START ADVECTING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, IT IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN BETWEEN WEATHER FEATURES TO THE WEST AND EAST. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, BUT WILL ALSO
KEEP THE EXISTING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE. THUS, THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION AND THUS FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN UTAH, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 646 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KSLC...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL ALONGSIDE LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING ON
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND UINTA COUNTY, WYOMING WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z,
WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THIS AREA THEREAFTER. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN RECORD CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THIS
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS HIGH IN
PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION. MONDAY WILL REMAIN
HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH INCREASED RH AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TOWARD MIDWEEK, DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DAYTIME RH AND IMPROVED
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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