845
FXUS65 KSLC 112352
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1002 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY ALL-TIME RECORDS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL GRADUALLY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS MONSOON
MOISTURE STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 207 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS
PREVENTED ANY AFTERNOON CLOUDS OR CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
IT IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. WE WILL TOP
OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER THE
RECORD AT KSLC WILL LIKELY HOLD GIVEN THAT THE RECORD FOR THE DAY
IS 106 (2024) AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 103. TOMORROW WILL
BE THE HOTTEST DAY, THOUGH, WITH A CURRENT FORECAST OF 106 THAT
WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 105 (2024). THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TYING THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH (107) OR EVEN
BREAKING IT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 700 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK AROUND 20C. THIS WOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY'S ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20.2C. THE REASON WE MIGHT NOT
BEAT THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS OUR LACK OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THAT TEND TO DOWNSLOPE OFF THE TERRAIN AND HEAT THE AIR UP A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE. THERE STILL REMAINS ~30% CHANCE OF REACHING
107 AND A 10% CHANCE OF GETTING TO 108. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AS THIS RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST LATE SUNDAY SOME OF THE FIRST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO CREEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AS
PWATS APPROACH 1 INCH. THERE IS ~30% CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
HIGH- BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH STEERING FLOW FROM EAST TO WEST THE
CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFF OF THE TERRAIN INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN ST. GEORGE, FOR EXAMPLE, SIMILAR
TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARDS THE EAST MORE MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PWATS START
TO PUSH INTO THE 95TH+ PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BY
WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAILY PWAT RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. WITH
THIS MOISTURE, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH RECENT LARGE BURN SCARS ACROSS THE CWA
THERE WILL BE A GREATER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN
THESE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD ALONGSIDE LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AFTER SUNDOWN, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AREAWIDE. AREAS OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS FORMING
ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHEASTERN
UTAH WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNDOWN, LEADING TO LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 207 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVERHEAD.
THIS IS CREATING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH, ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
HEAT IS CREATING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS ~30% OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE
CREEPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
BY MONDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BETTER
MOISTURE TAP. INITIALLY, THIS MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM
OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THAT MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND DEVELOP MORE EASILY ACROSS BOTH VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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