533
FXUS65 KSLC 121138
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
538 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1024 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THE HEAT WAVE OVER THE AREA WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY, WITH MANY
DAILY, MONTHLY, AND ALL-TIME RECORDS BEING CHALLENGED,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS HOT DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THUS FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1024 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A STRONG RIDGE PARKED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING IS BRINGING DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. MAXES AVERAGED UP
TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH MEANS MOST VALLEYS GOT CLOSE
TO OR EXCEEDED 100F FOR THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY. THOUGH THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW, SOME ADDITIONAL HOT AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING 700 MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +22C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AMONG THE HIGHEST
700MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.
PREDICTABLY, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MANY DAILY RECORDS BEING
BROKEN, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
AIRMASS IS MOST ABNORMALLY WARM. LOCATIONS LIKE LOGAN AND EVANSTON
HAVE A 60-75 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IN
FARTHER SOUTH LOCATIONS LIKE SALT LAKE CITY AND PARK CITY, MORE
LIKE A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE. STILL, TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS TO MOST VALLEY
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA, AND EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
FOR MONDAY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING, AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THOUGH
NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE A BIT LESS HOT, THE HEIGHTENED THREAT OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS REMAINS. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MOSTLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE WILDFIRE
SITUATION ACROSS THE STATE, BUT WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY TO SOUTHERN UTAH. THOUGH THE FLOW
WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME LIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, LIMITING THE ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALREADY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IT WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS AS EARLY AS 19Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AREAWIDE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THERE IS A 10-
12% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KCDC AFTER 22Z. BY
THIS EVENING OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARIZONA
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AT KSGU AND KCDC, MOST LIKELY
DURING THE 02-05Z TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 506 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING ALL-TIME RECORDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. POOR TO NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL
ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW 10 PERCENT BY MIDDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE SOME HINTS OF
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DEEP MIXING AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DAYTIME RH ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND PERHAPS CENTRAL UTAH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN HOT,
DRY AND UNSTABLE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE STATE BY
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH ELEVATED DAYTIME RH AND IMPROVED
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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