189
FXUS65 KSLC 121839
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1239 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1024 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THE HEAT WAVE OVER THE AREA WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY, WITH MANY
DAILY, MONTHLY, AND ALL-TIME RECORDS BEING CHALLENGED,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS HOT DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THUS FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1024 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A STRONG RIDGE PARKED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING IS BRINGING DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. MAXES AVERAGED UP
TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH MEANS MOST VALLEYS GOT CLOSE
TO OR EXCEEDED 100F FOR THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY. THOUGH THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW, SOME ADDITIONAL HOT AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING 700 MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +22C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AMONG THE HIGHEST
700MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.
PREDICTABLY, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MANY DAILY RECORDS BEING
BROKEN, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
AIRMASS IS MOST ABNORMALLY WARM. LOCATIONS LIKE LOGAN AND EVANSTON
HAVE A 60-75 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IN
FARTHER SOUTH LOCATIONS LIKE SALT LAKE CITY AND PARK CITY, MORE
LIKE A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE. STILL, TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS TO MOST VALLEY
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA, AND EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
FOR MONDAY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING, AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THOUGH
NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE A BIT LESS HOT, THE HEIGHTENED THREAT OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS REMAINS. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MOSTLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE WILDFIRE
SITUATION ACROSS THE STATE, BUT WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY TO SOUTHERN UTAH. THOUGH THE FLOW
WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME LIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, LIMITING THE ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALREADY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IT WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS PERSIST. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR SO BETWEEN 07-14Z
MONDAY. WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN ~18-20Z
MONDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN, WITH TIMING MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 23Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH DECREASING THREAT NOTED AT AREAS FURTHER NORTH
NEARER THE IDAHO BORDER. ASIDE FROM THIS, WINDS LARGELY ANTICIPATED
TO FOLLOW A TYPICALLY DIURNAL PATTERN, WITH MODEST GUSTS 20-25 KTS
OR SO AT TYPICALLY BREEZY OR EXPOSED TERMINALS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR, THOUGH ANY STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY ATOP A TERMINAL
MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VIS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1226 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TODAY, RESULTING IN RECORD HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
OUR MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UTAH, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR MORE
SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER
STRONGER CORES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE STATE BY TUESDAY, BRINGING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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