509
FXUS65 KSLC 130423
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A HISTORICALLY HOT DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME LESS HOT
TOMORROW, AVERAGING 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS HOT THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THUS FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING, PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A RATHER HOT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE RESULTED IN
HISTORICALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY, WITH SALT LAKE CITY SETTING A NEW ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGH AT 109F. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS A LOGAN, PARK CITY, AND
DUCHESNE AT LEAST GOT CLOSE TO SETTING MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME
RECORDS AS WELL, BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORNING REPORTS TO COME
IN TO CONFIRM. THE 00Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED THE HOTTEST 700MB
TEMPERATURE FOR SLC ON RECORD WITH A VALUE OF 21.0C.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWS SHOWING VALUES UP TO 0.8
INCH. THIS MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPED OF STRONG TO SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH, ONE OF WHICH
BROUGHT SEVERE GUSTS TO CEDAR CITY AIRPORT AND ANOTHER ONE WHICH
KNOCKED A LARGE TREE BRANCH ONTO A ROAD IN ZION NATIONAL PARK. THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD PW VALUES IN
THE 0.8 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, PARTICULARLY
TOMORROW, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING BROAD RIDGE. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, BUT
WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, CONTINUING TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WILDFIRES BUT KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
HEIGHTENED.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH, WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO DIMINISH AROUND 06-08Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORMS WINDS, AND A
LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING, AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH IMPROVED
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINFALL. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACTING TO DECREASE
FIRE DANGER BUT INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ101>108-114-
116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-122-
128>131.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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