773
FXUS65 KSLC 160524
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1124 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1213 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND NORTHEAST UT,
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE FOR NORTHERN UT STARTING FRIDAY.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/4)
STARTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST UT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UT AND PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL UT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WATCH MAY BE
EXTENDED AS MORE FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST EAST OF UTAH
THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST UTAH ARE NOW OVER 1.1
INCHES, WITH UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
EXPECT PWATS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (WIDESPREAD PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK). WITH THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING TO MOISTEN, THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA, AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE MODELS AT
THIS TIME TO AID WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT. GIVEN THIS AND WEAK FLOW, EXPECT MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN
LARGELY PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOLS AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS.
HOWEVER, SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING WILL
SERVE AS FOCUS POINTS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH, WHEN
FALLING OVER SENSITIVE DRAINAGES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
WILL BE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH,
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
AVIATION
KSLC...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BY 07Z
BUT AS LATE AS 09Z. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY LIKELY
BETWEEN 17-18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE INCREASES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS AFTER ~01-03Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AROUND KCDC-KSGU THROUGH 14Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH CHANCES FOR MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS
AND VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1216 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
CURRENTLY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH
INTO UT RAISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
STATE AND HUMIDITIES, BOTH SERVING TO MODERATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-
80%) REMAIN HIGHEST EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT AS WELL AS THE UINTAS. THESE LOCATIONS ARE ALSO WHERE
CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN ARE FAVORED, THOUGH GENERALLY HIGHEST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN UT AND THE
WEST DESERT TODAY AND TOMORROW, CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WHOLE STATE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ121>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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