463
FXUS65 KSLC 161805
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1205 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1213 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND NORTHEAST UT,
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE FOR NORTHERN UT STARTING FRIDAY.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/4)
STARTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST UT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UT AND PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL UT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WATCH MAY BE
EXTENDED AS MORE FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1124 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST EAST OF UTAH
THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST UTAH ARE NOW OVER 1.1
INCHES, WITH UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
EXPECT PWATS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (WIDESPREAD PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK). WITH THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING TO MOISTEN, THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA, AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE MODELS AT
THIS TIME TO AID WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT. GIVEN THIS AND WEAK FLOW, EXPECT MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN
LARGELY PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOLS AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS.
HOWEVER, SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING WILL
SERVE AS FOCUS POINTS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH, WHEN
FALLING OVER SENSITIVE DRAINAGES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
WILL BE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH,
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
AVIATION, ISSUED 727 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KSLC...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
18Z. THERE IS AROUND A 25-30% CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL 20-21Z. AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 20-21Z. THERE WILL BE AROUND A 30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
THAT SAID, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT, AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. BY
AROUND 18Z, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UTAH (LOWER COVERAGE
NORTH OF I-80). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DRIFTING OFF TERRAIN FEATURES INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AFTER 20Z,
BRINGING POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN UTAH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NEARBY STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM THIS SURGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH, COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30% RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND TO AROUND 30-40%.
THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ121>131.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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