510
FXUS65 KSLC 161818
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1218 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WAS ISSUED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH.
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY IN THIS
AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS AN ACTIVE MONSOON SURGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THE WEATHER EACH DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH WILL BE FOCUSED ON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THE
98TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AND
EXTENDED ENSEMBLE MODELING SUGGESTS PWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 90TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY IN REGARDS TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH MOST PARAMETERS AT OR
MORE PREFERENTIAL FOR COLD POOL/SHEAR BALANCE, EXPECT SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH HIGHER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
IT'LL FEEL A BIT LIKE RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THESE AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH FOR
FLASH FLOODING WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THIS PACKAGE.
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN RELATION TO THE MONSOON INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR EXPANSION
OF THE FLOOD WATCHES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR
OUTDOOR RECREATIONISTS TO PLAN HIKES INTO/NEAR SLOT CANYONS,
NORMALLY DRY WASHES, SLICK ROCK AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, THOSE NEAR
RECENT BURN SCARS SUCH AS COTTONWOOD, MONROE CANYON, FRANCE
CANYON, AND FORSYTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
WARNINGS AND HAVE A PLAN IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
AVIATION...KSLC
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
BY THIS EVENING. WITH STORMS GENERALLY RESIDING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL, WOULD EXPECT THESE WINDS TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THERE WILL BE A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL ITSELF THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0Z AND 3Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF UTAH (LOWER COVERAGE NORTH OF I-80). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING OFF TERRAIN FEATURES
INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AFTER 20Z, BRINGING POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM THIS SURGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH, COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30% RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND TO AROUND 30-40%.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ121>131.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/VAN CLEAVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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