108
FXUS65 KSLC 180038
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
637 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1210 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, NORTHEAST UT, AND SOUTHWEST WY EACH
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS FORECAST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EACH DAY ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ALL OF
UT. A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UT AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ENCOMPASSING THE
SAME AREAS.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1210 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. BENEATH THIS
RIDGE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS UT RAISING PWATS
AREAWIDE IN EXCESS OF 1" OF WATER ACROSS NEARLY ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY POTENTIALLY SEEING PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.6" THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO, KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON SOUTHERN UT. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN UT TODAY, INCREASING
MORE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH.
WITH PWAT ANOMALIES STATEWIDE RANGING FROM 0.5" TO NEARLY 1" THIS
AFTERNOON, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT YIELDING
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. WHILE THIS HAS
INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, DEEPER MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A TALLER, SKINNIER CAPE PROFILE (POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 1000J/KG) WITH A DEEPER WARM CLOUD LAYER SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM MATURE STORMS.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CAPE VALUES >= 1000J/KG CURRENTLY
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT, SUPPORTED BY BOTH SPC MESOANALYSIS
AND CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATE DOWN TERRAIN TOWARD THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A MORE ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST WOULD BE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS PROPAGATE
WEST POTENTIALLY RAISING CIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UT. IF INITIATION
WERE TO OCCUR EARLIER, HOWEVER, A LOCALLY HIGHER FLOODING THREAT MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UT THIS AFTERNOON. A NEARLY IDENTICAL
THREAT EXISTS SATURDAY AS WELL GIVEN SIMILAR SYNOPTICS AND MOISTURE
QUALITY ACROSS THE REGION.
FROM SUNDAY ON, SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS REGARDING STORM MOTIONS
WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY INHIBIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE
QUALITY MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, STORM MOTIONS MAY POTENTIALLY SEE
A SLIGHT UPTICK BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH IN
EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ON, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING THIS FURTHER
AS STORMS MAY TEND TO MOVE OFF TERRAIN QUICKER INSTEAD OF TRAINING
OVER ONE LOCATION. THESE DETAILS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO IRON OUT FULLY
UNTIL THE DAY BEFORE, THOUGH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
A MINIMUM EACH DAY GOING FORWARD FROM SUNDAY ON.
AVIATION...KSLC
A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER AROUND 03-04Z WHERE
THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TYPICAL
NORTHWESTERLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST UTAH
AND NORTHEAST UTAH, WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
MAY DROP VIS INTO MVFR. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1228 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
CURRENTLY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH
INTO UT INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND RAISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE, BOTH SERVING TO MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT, HIGH TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN TO NORTHERN
UT, AND THE UINTAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60-90%. ADDITIONALLY,
THESE LOCATIONS ARE WHERE A WETTING RAIN IS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO NORTHERN UT INTO THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED INTO NEXT
WEEK EACH AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ122>128.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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