459
FXUS65 KSLC 180518
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1118 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND NORTHEAST UT,
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WY EACH AFTERNOON WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ALL OF UT. A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
DAILY, MOSTLY DIURNAL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IT
WILL BE PRETTY MUCH RINSE AND REPEAT, WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOLS
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AGAIN FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN AMPLY MOIST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCREASING BUT SUBTLE VORT MAX
ACTIVITY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL ALSO BE
SPREADING MORE INTO NORTHERN UTAH. THEREAFTER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL DRYING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO END THE DIURNAL CONVECTION,
BUT COVERAGE MAY DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION
KSLC...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER ~17-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS, MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN, AND A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR A WEAK LINE ACROSS FAR WESTERN UTAH.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH OVERALL LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN SPREADING TO ADJACENT VALLEYS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN, AND
BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1228 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
CURRENTLY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH
INTO UT INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND RAISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE, BOTH SERVING TO MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT, HIGH TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN TO NORTHERN
UT, AND THE UINTAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60-90%. ADDITIONALLY,
THESE LOCATIONS ARE WHERE A WETTING RAIN IS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO NORTHERN UT INTO THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED INTO NEXT
WEEK EACH AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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