448
FXUS65 KSLC 190351
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
951 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FROM STORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH.
DISCUSSION
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY WANING ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER
ROUGHLY NOON ON SUNDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS FAVORED AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH PWAT VALUES 1+" LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BRINGS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING INTO THE
0.7-0.9" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-80, AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL UTAH ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE MONSOON PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD, THOUGH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ATTENDANT FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS TUESDAY FOR A WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK, AS EVIDENCED BY THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, A SURGE IN DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY, WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT GREATEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FAVORING AREAS TO OUR WEST, WITH PWATS GRADUALLY TAPERING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, MOISTURE
WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR THE
TIME BEING.
AVIATION, ISSUED 521 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KSLC...CONVECTION CHANCES FURTHER DIMINISH INTO LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH WINDS FAVORED TO TREND SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (~10-
20% CHANCE MORE EASTERLY BRIEFLY). CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER, BUT
REMAIN VFR GENERALLY ABOVE 10 KFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
FORECAST PROGRESSION WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW ~17-19Z, AND
LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OR CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL.
INDIRECTLY, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOWS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH REMNANT OUTFLOWS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
VARIABILITY TO WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS. TERMINALS EVENTUALLY SETTLE
OUT MORE DIURNALLY NORMAL TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH LINGERING VFR
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST SUNDAY IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THAT OF
PREVIOUS DAYS. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO INITIALLY TREND DIURNALLY NORMAL,
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN
SPREADING TO ADJACENT AREAS IN TIME. ASIDE FROM BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS DIRECTLY ATOP A TERMINAL,
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH
INTO UT INCREASING HUMIDITIES WHILE RAISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE, BOTH SERVING TO MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT, HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UT, AND THE UINTAS RANGING FROM 60-90%. A WETTING RAIN REMAINS
FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EACH MENTIONED LOCATION. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN PARALLEL
TO I-15 EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 1200-1300
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN / DIURNAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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