828
FXUS65 KSLC 191855
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1255 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, NORTHEAST UT, AND SOUTHWEST WY EACH
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS FORECAST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EACH DAY ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ALL OF
UT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON,
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT, AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
UT AND SOUTHWEST WY.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UT AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
- HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN UT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND WEST DESERT. AS
SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. BENEATH THIS RIDGE, PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1" CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UT POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1.6" PWATS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS,
AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN UT, THOUGH MOST
STORMS HAVE REMAINED ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN FURTHER EAST EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER PBL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST UT VALLEYS
AND CONSIDERABLY WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THIS BRINGS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, KEEPING POPS
SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND NORTHWEST UT
COMPARED TO HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
ADVECT FURTHER NORTH AS SOME STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST, INCREASING POPS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DELAYED CLOSER TO 3PM TODAY DUE TO AN EARLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE REGION, LEAVING SOME LOCALIZED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE. PWAT ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM 0.5-1" OF WATER AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE PROFILES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYERS UP TO 3KM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM WELL ESTABLISHED STORMS.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CAPE VALUES >= 1000J/KG ONCE
AGAIN RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT, SUPPORTED BY BOTH SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATE DOWN TERRAIN TOWARD THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENTS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHWEST UT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD "MAJOR"
HEATRISK VALUES, PRIMARILY WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR AND GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT, WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING
"MAJOR". OVERNIGHT RELIEF FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE THREAT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS SUCH, A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF UT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS DRY PUNCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
THIS WEEK BRINGING PROLONGED DRY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
ANY CHANCES MORE THAN LIKELY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
LASTLY, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN UT
AND SOUTHWEST WY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THIS SHORTWAVE REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THE
BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION
KSLC...THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. INDIRECTLY, ANY CONVECTION IN
REASONABLE PROXIMITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS, PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST AS IN PAST DAYS WITH A LESSER
POTENTIAL FROM THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH, ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SE SUNDAY EVENING
BETWEEN 03-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS WHEN
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG AND ADJACENT TO UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN.
STRONGER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY OVER AREA TERMINALS WILL BRING AROUND A
20-40% CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, AND INDIRECTLY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO THEN WANE
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS UT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES WHILE RAISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE MODERATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERALL. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UT, AND THE UINTAS RANGING FROM 50-80%. A WETTING RAIN
REMAINS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EACH MENTIONED LOCATION.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN
PARALLEL TO I-15 EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AROUND
1200-1400 WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN / DIURNAL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ101>105.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...ADESMET
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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